Extreme weather events have become more frequent due to climate change, and extreme rainfall is a common occurrence in the tropical monsoon areas. Makassar City was chosen as a representative area of ​​the tropical monsoon climate. The objective of this research is to utilize the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), along with its nested model (exponential), to predict the monthly return levels of extreme rainfall in the designated geographical region. The study utilized daily precipitation data from January 1980 to December 2022. To determine the monthly daily rainfall data that exceeds a certain threshold, the peaks over threshold (POT) method was applied. The result discovered that the exponential distribution is the most appropriate for extreme rainfall series in most months, except for February and July, where the GPD is more appropriate. No trends or seasonal patterns were identified in any of the months. The calculated return levels of extreme rainfall for each month at the 2, 3, 5, and 10-year return periods indicate that February has the highest rainfall return level for all selected return periods compared to other months with December and January following closely behind. These findings are expected to assist the government in developing flood prevention strategies and mitigating their effects, particularly during the rainy seasons peak months in the city, which are December to February.

generalized Pareto

return levels

peaks over threshold

extreme rainfall